Cumulative Prognostic Score Predicting Mortality in Patients Older Than 80 Years Admitted to the ICU

Dylan W. de Lange*, Sylvia Brinkman, Hans Flaatten, Ariane Boumendil, Alessandro Morandi, Finn H. Andersen, Antonio Artigas, Guido Bertolini, Maurizio Cecconi, Steffen Christensen, Loredana Faraldi, Jesper Fjølner, Christian Jung, Brian Marsh, Rui Moreno, Sandra Oeyen, Christina Agvald Öhman, Bernardo Bollen Pinto, Anne Marie G.A. de Smet, Ivo W. SolimanWojciech Szczeklik, Andreas Valentin, Ximena Watson, Tilemachos Zafeiridis, Bertrand Guidet, René Schmutz, Franz Wimmer, Philipp Eller, Michael Joannidis, Pieter De Buysscher, Nikolaas De Neve, Walter Swinnen, Paul Abraham, Leila Hergafi, Joerg C. Schefold, Ewelina Biskup, Petr Piza, Ioannis Taliadoros, Nilanjan Dey, Christoffer Sølling, Bodil Steen Rasmussen, Xavier Forceville, Guillaume Besch, Herve Mentec, Philippe Michel, Philippe Mateu, Philippe Michel, Lucie Vettoretti, Jeremy Bourenne, Nathalie Marin, Max Guillot, Naida Aissaoui, Cyril Goulenok, Nathalie Thieulot-Rolin, Jonathan Messika, Lionel Lamhaut, Cyril Charron, Alexander Lauten, Anna Lena Sacher, Thorsten Brenner, Marcus Franz, Frank Bloos, Henning Ebelt, Stefan J. Schaller, Kristina Fuest, Christian Rabe, Thorben Dieck, Stephan Steiner, Tobias Graf, Amir M. Nia, Rolf Alexander Janosi, Patrick Meybohm, Philipp Simon, Stefan Utzolino, Tim Rahmel, Eberhard Barth, Christian Jung, Michael Schuster, Zoi Aidoni, Stavros Aloizos, Polychronis Tasioudis, Kleri Lampiri, Vasiliki Zisopoulou, Ifigenia Ravani, Eumorfia Pagaki, Angela Antoniou, Theodoros A. Katsoulas, Aikaterini Kounougeri, George Marinakis, Fotios Tsimpoukas, Anastasia Spyropoulou, Paris Zygoulis, Aikaterini Kyparissi, Manish Gupta, Mohan Gurjar, Ismail M. Maji, Ivan Hayes, Yvelynne Kelly, Andrew Westbrook, Gerry Fitzpatrick, Darshana Maheshwari, Catherine Motherway, Giovanni Negri, Savino Spadaro, Giuseppe Nattino, Matteo Pedeferri, Annalisa Boscolo, Simona Rossi, Giuseppe Calicchio, Lucia Cubattoli, Gabriella Di Lascio, Maria Barbagallo, Francesco Berruto, Daniela Codazzi, Andrea Bottazzi, Paolo Fumagalli, Giancarlo Negro, Giuseppe Lupi, Flavia Savelli, Giuseppe A. Vulcano, Roberto Fumagalli, Andrea Marudi, Ugo Lefons, Rita Lembo, Maria Babini, Alessandra Paggioro, Vieri Parrini, Maria Zaccaria, Stefano Clementi, Carmelo Gigliuto, Francesca Facondini, Simonetta Pastorini, Susanna Munaron, Italo Calamai, Anna Bocchi, Adele Adorni, Maria Grazia Bocci, Andrea Cortegiani, Tiziana Casalicchio, Serena Mellea, Elia Graziani, Massimo Barattini, Elisabetta Brizio, Maurizio Rossi, Michael Hahn, Nicolai Kemmerer, Hans Frank Strietzel, Knut Dybwik, Terje Legernaes, Pål Klepstad, Even Braut Olaussen, Knut Inge Olsen, Ole Marius Brresen, Geir Bjorsvik, Sameer Maini, Lutz Fehrle, Miroslaw Czuczwar, Pawel Krawczyk, Mirosław Ziętkiewicz, Łukasz R. Nowak, Katarzyna Kotfis, Katarzyna Cwyl, Ryszard Gajdosz, Jowita Biernawska, Romuald Bohatyrewicz, Ryszard Gawda, Paweł Grudzień, Paweł Nasiłowski, Natalia Popek, Waldemar Cyrankiewicz, Katarzyna Wawrzyniak, Marek Wnuk, Dariusz Maciejewski, Dorota Studzińska, Maciej Żukowski, Szymon Bernas, Mariusz Piechota, Mariusz Piechota, Ilona Nowak, Jakub Fronczek, Marta Serwa, Waldemar Machała, Jan Stefaniak, Maria Wujtewicz, Paweł Maciejewski, Małgorzata Szymkowiak, Barbara Adamik, Nuno Catorze, Miguel Castelo Branco, Inês Barros, Nelson Barros, Andriy Krystopchuk, Teresa Honrado, Cristina Sousa, Francisco Munoz, Marta Rebelo, Rui Gomes, Jorge Nunes, Celeste Dias, Ana Margarida Fernandes, Cristina Petrisor, Bodolea Constantin, Vladislav Belskiy, Boris Boskholov, Enver Rodriguez, Sergio Rebollo, Gerardo Aguilar, Gaspar Masdeu, Marián Irazábal Jaimes, Ángela Prado Mira, Maria A. Bodi, Jesus A.Barea Mendoza, Sonia López Cuenca, Marcela Homez Guzman, Jesús Rico-Feijoo, Mercedes Ibarz, Josep Trenado Alvarez, Rafael Kawati, Joakim Sivik, Jessica Nauska, Daniel Smole, Fredric Parenmark, Johanna Lyrén, Katalin Rockstroh, Sara Rydén, Morten Strinnholm, Sten Walther, Lina De Geer, Peter Nordlund, Staffan Pålsson, Harald Zetterquist, Annika Nilsson, Karin Thiringer, Mårten Jungner, Björn Bark, Berit Nordling, Hans Sköld, Camilla Brorsson, Stefan Persson, Anna Bergström, Johan Berkius, Johanna Holmström, I. van Dijk, L. E.M. van Lelyveld-Haas, D. Ramnarain, Tim Jansen, Fleur Nooteboom, Peter H.J. van der Voort, Willem Dieperink, Monique C. de Waard, Laura Bormans, Tom Dormans, Ged Dempsey, Shiju J. Mathew, Ashok S. Raj, Irina Grecu, Jason Cupitt, Tom Lawton, Richard Clark, Monica Popescu, Nick Spittle, Maria Faulkner, Amanda Cowton, Esme Elloway, Patricia Williams, Michael Reay, Srikanth Chukkambotla, Ravi Kumar, Nawaf Al-Subaie, Linda Kent, Tiina Tamm, Istvan Kajtor, Karen Burns, Richard Pugh, Marlies Ostermann, Elisa Kam, Helen Bowyer, Neil Smith, Maie Templeton, Jeremy Henning, Kelly Goffin, Ritoo Kapoor, Shondipon Laha, Phil Chilton, Waqas Khaliq, Alison Crayford, Samantha Coetzee, Moira Tait, Wendy Stoker, Marc Gimenez, Alan Pope, Julie Camsooksai, David Pogson, Kate Quigley, Jenny Ritzema, Anil Hormis, Carole Boulanger, M. Balasubramaniam, Luke Vamplew, Karen Burt, Daniel Martin, Irina Grecu, Jayne Craig, John Prowle, Nanci Doyle, Jonathon Shelton, Carmen Scott, Phil Donnison, Sarah Shelton, Christian Frey, Christine Ryan, Dominic Spray, Christine Ryan, Veronica Barnes, Kerry Barnes, Stephanie Ridgway, Rajnish Saha, Linda Kent, Thomas Clark, James Wood, Clare Bolger, Christopher Bassford, Amanda Cowton, John Lewandowski, Xiaobei Zhao, Sally Humphreys, Susan Dowling, Neil Richardson, Andrew Burtenshaw, Carl Stevenson, Danielle Wilcock, Yuiry Nalapko, the VIP1 Study Group

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To develop a scoring system model that predicts mortality within 30 days of admission of patients older than 80 years admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: A total of 306 ICUs from 24 European countries. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults admitted to European ICUs (N = 3730; median age = 84 years [interquartile range = 81-87 y]; 51.8% male). MEASUREMENTS: Overall, 24 variables available during ICU admission were included as potential predictive variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Model sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: The 30-day-mortality was 1562 (41.9%). In multivariable analysis, these variables were selected as independent predictors of mortality: age, sex, ICU admission diagnosis, Clinical Frailty Scale, Sequential Organ Failure Score, invasive mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy. The discrimination, accuracy, and calibration of the model were good: the area under the curve for a score of 10 or higher was.80, and the Brier score was.18. At a cut point of 10 or higher (75% of all patients), the model predicts 30-day mortality in 91.1% of all patients who die. CONCLUSION: A predictive model of cumulative events predicts 30-day mortality in patients older than 80 years admitted to ICUs. Future studies should include other potential predictor variables including functional status, presence of advance care plans, and assessment of each patient's decision-making capacity.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1263-1267
Number of pages5
JournalJournal of the American Geriatrics Society
Volume67
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2019

Cite this

de Lange, D. W., Brinkman, S., Flaatten, H., Boumendil, A., Morandi, A., Andersen, F. H., ... the VIP1 Study Group (2019). Cumulative Prognostic Score Predicting Mortality in Patients Older Than 80 Years Admitted to the ICU. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 67(6), 1263-1267. https://doi.org/10.1111/jgs.15888