Development and validation of the Brabant Hip Fracture Score for 30-day and 1-year mortality

Cornelis L. P. van de Ree, Taco Gosens, Alexander H. van der Veen, Cees J. M. Oosterbos, Martijn W. Heymans, Mariska A. C. de Jongh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Background: Hip fractures in the elderly are associated with advanced comorbidities and high mortality rates. Mortality prediction models can support clinicians in tailoring treatment for medical decision making in frail elderly patients. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate the Brabant Hip Fracture Score, for 30-day (BHFS-30) and 1-year mortality (BHFS-365) after hip fracture. Material and methods: A cohort study was conducted in 2 hospitals on operatively treated patients of 65 years and older with a hip fracture. Manual backward multivariable logistic regression was used to select independent predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping techniques. Model performance was assessed with: (1) discrimination via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); (2) explained variance via Nagelkerke’s R 2 ; (3) calibration via Hosmer-Lemeshow (H&L) test and calibration plots. Results: Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were: age, gender, living in an institution, Hb, respiratory disease, diabetes and malignancy. In addition, cognitive frailty and renal insufficiency, were selected in the BHFS-365. Both models showed acceptable discrimination after internal validation (AUC = 0.71 and 0.75). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit (p > 0.05). Discussion: We demonstrated that the internally validated and easy to use BHFS in surgically treated elderly patients after a hip fracture showed acceptable discrimination and adequate calibration. In clinical practice a cutoff of BHFS-30 ⩾ 24 could identify frail elderly patients at high risk for early mortality and could support clinicians, patients and families in tailoring treatment for medical decision making.
Original languageEnglish
JournalHip International
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Cite this

van de Ree, Cornelis L. P. ; Gosens, Taco ; van der Veen, Alexander H. ; Oosterbos, Cees J. M. ; Heymans, Martijn W. ; de Jongh, Mariska A. C. / Development and validation of the Brabant Hip Fracture Score for 30-day and 1-year mortality. In: Hip International. 2019.
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title = "Development and validation of the Brabant Hip Fracture Score for 30-day and 1-year mortality",
abstract = "Background: Hip fractures in the elderly are associated with advanced comorbidities and high mortality rates. Mortality prediction models can support clinicians in tailoring treatment for medical decision making in frail elderly patients. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate the Brabant Hip Fracture Score, for 30-day (BHFS-30) and 1-year mortality (BHFS-365) after hip fracture. Material and methods: A cohort study was conducted in 2 hospitals on operatively treated patients of 65 years and older with a hip fracture. Manual backward multivariable logistic regression was used to select independent predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping techniques. Model performance was assessed with: (1) discrimination via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); (2) explained variance via Nagelkerke’s R 2 ; (3) calibration via Hosmer-Lemeshow (H&L) test and calibration plots. Results: Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were: age, gender, living in an institution, Hb, respiratory disease, diabetes and malignancy. In addition, cognitive frailty and renal insufficiency, were selected in the BHFS-365. Both models showed acceptable discrimination after internal validation (AUC = 0.71 and 0.75). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit (p > 0.05). Discussion: We demonstrated that the internally validated and easy to use BHFS in surgically treated elderly patients after a hip fracture showed acceptable discrimination and adequate calibration. In clinical practice a cutoff of BHFS-30 ⩾ 24 could identify frail elderly patients at high risk for early mortality and could support clinicians, patients and families in tailoring treatment for medical decision making.",
author = "{van de Ree}, {Cornelis L. P.} and Taco Gosens and {van der Veen}, {Alexander H.} and Oosterbos, {Cees J. M.} and Heymans, {Martijn W.} and {de Jongh}, {Mariska A. C.}",
year = "2019",
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Development and validation of the Brabant Hip Fracture Score for 30-day and 1-year mortality. / van de Ree, Cornelis L. P.; Gosens, Taco; van der Veen, Alexander H.; Oosterbos, Cees J. M.; Heymans, Martijn W.; de Jongh, Mariska A. C.

In: Hip International, 2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Development and validation of the Brabant Hip Fracture Score for 30-day and 1-year mortality

AU - van de Ree, Cornelis L. P.

AU - Gosens, Taco

AU - van der Veen, Alexander H.

AU - Oosterbos, Cees J. M.

AU - Heymans, Martijn W.

AU - de Jongh, Mariska A. C.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Background: Hip fractures in the elderly are associated with advanced comorbidities and high mortality rates. Mortality prediction models can support clinicians in tailoring treatment for medical decision making in frail elderly patients. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate the Brabant Hip Fracture Score, for 30-day (BHFS-30) and 1-year mortality (BHFS-365) after hip fracture. Material and methods: A cohort study was conducted in 2 hospitals on operatively treated patients of 65 years and older with a hip fracture. Manual backward multivariable logistic regression was used to select independent predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping techniques. Model performance was assessed with: (1) discrimination via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); (2) explained variance via Nagelkerke’s R 2 ; (3) calibration via Hosmer-Lemeshow (H&L) test and calibration plots. Results: Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were: age, gender, living in an institution, Hb, respiratory disease, diabetes and malignancy. In addition, cognitive frailty and renal insufficiency, were selected in the BHFS-365. Both models showed acceptable discrimination after internal validation (AUC = 0.71 and 0.75). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit (p > 0.05). Discussion: We demonstrated that the internally validated and easy to use BHFS in surgically treated elderly patients after a hip fracture showed acceptable discrimination and adequate calibration. In clinical practice a cutoff of BHFS-30 ⩾ 24 could identify frail elderly patients at high risk for early mortality and could support clinicians, patients and families in tailoring treatment for medical decision making.

AB - Background: Hip fractures in the elderly are associated with advanced comorbidities and high mortality rates. Mortality prediction models can support clinicians in tailoring treatment for medical decision making in frail elderly patients. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate the Brabant Hip Fracture Score, for 30-day (BHFS-30) and 1-year mortality (BHFS-365) after hip fracture. Material and methods: A cohort study was conducted in 2 hospitals on operatively treated patients of 65 years and older with a hip fracture. Manual backward multivariable logistic regression was used to select independent predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping techniques. Model performance was assessed with: (1) discrimination via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); (2) explained variance via Nagelkerke’s R 2 ; (3) calibration via Hosmer-Lemeshow (H&L) test and calibration plots. Results: Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were: age, gender, living in an institution, Hb, respiratory disease, diabetes and malignancy. In addition, cognitive frailty and renal insufficiency, were selected in the BHFS-365. Both models showed acceptable discrimination after internal validation (AUC = 0.71 and 0.75). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit (p > 0.05). Discussion: We demonstrated that the internally validated and easy to use BHFS in surgically treated elderly patients after a hip fracture showed acceptable discrimination and adequate calibration. In clinical practice a cutoff of BHFS-30 ⩾ 24 could identify frail elderly patients at high risk for early mortality and could support clinicians, patients and families in tailoring treatment for medical decision making.

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UR - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30912455

U2 - 10.1177/1120700019836962

DO - 10.1177/1120700019836962

M3 - Article

JO - Hip International

JF - Hip International

SN - 1120-7000

ER -