Dynamic prediction of childhood high blood pressure in a population-based birth cohort: a model development study

Marleen Hamoen, Yvonne Vergouwe, Alet H. Wijga, Martijn W. Heymans, Vincent W. V. Jaddoe, Jos W. R. Twisk, Hein Raat, Marlou L. A. de Kroon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To develop a dynamic prediction model for high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years that could be applied at any age between birth and the age of 6 years in community-based child healthcare. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were used from 5359 children in a population-based prospective cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. OUTCOME MEASURE: High blood pressure was defined as systolic and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥95th percentile for gender, age and height. Using multivariable pooled logistic regression, the predictive value of characteristics at birth, and of longitudinal information on the body mass index (BMI) of the child until the age of 6 years, was assessed. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping. RESULTS: 227 children (4.2%) had high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years. Final predictors were maternal hypertensive disease during pregnancy, maternal educational level, maternal prepregnancy BMI, child ethnicity, birth weight SD score (SDS) and the most recent BMI SDS. After internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.65 (prediction at age 3 years) to 0.73 (prediction at age 5-6 years). CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model may help to monitor the risk of developing high blood pressure in childhood which may allow for early targeted primordial prevention of cardiovascular disease.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)e023912
JournalBMJ Open
Volume8
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Cite this

Hamoen, Marleen ; Vergouwe, Yvonne ; Wijga, Alet H. ; Heymans, Martijn W. ; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V. ; Twisk, Jos W. R. ; Raat, Hein ; de Kroon, Marlou L. A. / Dynamic prediction of childhood high blood pressure in a population-based birth cohort: a model development study. In: BMJ Open. 2018 ; Vol. 8, No. 11. pp. e023912.
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abstract = "OBJECTIVES: To develop a dynamic prediction model for high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years that could be applied at any age between birth and the age of 6 years in community-based child healthcare. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were used from 5359 children in a population-based prospective cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. OUTCOME MEASURE: High blood pressure was defined as systolic and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥95th percentile for gender, age and height. Using multivariable pooled logistic regression, the predictive value of characteristics at birth, and of longitudinal information on the body mass index (BMI) of the child until the age of 6 years, was assessed. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping. RESULTS: 227 children (4.2{\%}) had high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years. Final predictors were maternal hypertensive disease during pregnancy, maternal educational level, maternal prepregnancy BMI, child ethnicity, birth weight SD score (SDS) and the most recent BMI SDS. After internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.65 (prediction at age 3 years) to 0.73 (prediction at age 5-6 years). CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model may help to monitor the risk of developing high blood pressure in childhood which may allow for early targeted primordial prevention of cardiovascular disease.",
author = "Marleen Hamoen and Yvonne Vergouwe and Wijga, {Alet H.} and Heymans, {Martijn W.} and Jaddoe, {Vincent W. V.} and Twisk, {Jos W. R.} and Hein Raat and {de Kroon}, {Marlou L. A.}",
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Dynamic prediction of childhood high blood pressure in a population-based birth cohort: a model development study. / Hamoen, Marleen; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Wijga, Alet H.; Heymans, Martijn W.; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Twisk, Jos W. R.; Raat, Hein; de Kroon, Marlou L. A.

In: BMJ Open, Vol. 8, No. 11, 2018, p. e023912.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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T1 - Dynamic prediction of childhood high blood pressure in a population-based birth cohort: a model development study

AU - Hamoen, Marleen

AU - Vergouwe, Yvonne

AU - Wijga, Alet H.

AU - Heymans, Martijn W.

AU - Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.

AU - Twisk, Jos W. R.

AU - Raat, Hein

AU - de Kroon, Marlou L. A.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - OBJECTIVES: To develop a dynamic prediction model for high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years that could be applied at any age between birth and the age of 6 years in community-based child healthcare. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were used from 5359 children in a population-based prospective cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. OUTCOME MEASURE: High blood pressure was defined as systolic and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥95th percentile for gender, age and height. Using multivariable pooled logistic regression, the predictive value of characteristics at birth, and of longitudinal information on the body mass index (BMI) of the child until the age of 6 years, was assessed. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping. RESULTS: 227 children (4.2%) had high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years. Final predictors were maternal hypertensive disease during pregnancy, maternal educational level, maternal prepregnancy BMI, child ethnicity, birth weight SD score (SDS) and the most recent BMI SDS. After internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.65 (prediction at age 3 years) to 0.73 (prediction at age 5-6 years). CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model may help to monitor the risk of developing high blood pressure in childhood which may allow for early targeted primordial prevention of cardiovascular disease.

AB - OBJECTIVES: To develop a dynamic prediction model for high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years that could be applied at any age between birth and the age of 6 years in community-based child healthcare. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were used from 5359 children in a population-based prospective cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. OUTCOME MEASURE: High blood pressure was defined as systolic and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥95th percentile for gender, age and height. Using multivariable pooled logistic regression, the predictive value of characteristics at birth, and of longitudinal information on the body mass index (BMI) of the child until the age of 6 years, was assessed. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping. RESULTS: 227 children (4.2%) had high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years. Final predictors were maternal hypertensive disease during pregnancy, maternal educational level, maternal prepregnancy BMI, child ethnicity, birth weight SD score (SDS) and the most recent BMI SDS. After internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.65 (prediction at age 3 years) to 0.73 (prediction at age 5-6 years). CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model may help to monitor the risk of developing high blood pressure in childhood which may allow for early targeted primordial prevention of cardiovascular disease.

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