External Validation of a Tool Predicting 7-Year Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease, Type 2 Diabetes or Chronic Kidney Disease

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Chronic cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), share many modifiable risk factors and can be prevented using combined prevention programs. Valid risk prediction tools are needed to accurately identify individuals at risk.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously developed non-invasive risk prediction tool for predicting the combined 7-year-risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.

DESIGN: The previously developed tool is stratified for sex and contains the predictors age, BMI, waist circumference, use of antihypertensives, smoking, family history of myocardial infarction/stroke, and family history of diabetes. This tool was externally validated, evaluating model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-assessing discrimination-and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (HL) statistics-assessing calibration. The intercept was recalibrated to improve calibration performance.

PARTICIPANTS: The risk prediction tool was validated in 3544 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab).

KEY RESULTS: Discrimination was acceptable, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.81) in men and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) in women. Calibration was poor (HL statistic: p < 0.001), but improved considerably after intercept recalibration. Examination of individual outcomes showed that in men, AUC was highest for CKD (0.85 [95% CI 0.78-0.91]) and lowest for T2D (0.69 [95% CI 0.65-0.74]). In women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.88 [95% CI 0.83-0.94)]) and lowest for T2D (0.71 [95% CI 0.66-0.75]).

CONCLUSIONS: Validation of our previously developed tool showed robust discriminative performance across populations. Model recalibration is recommended to account for different disease rates. Our risk prediction tool can be useful in large-scale prevention programs for identifying those in need of further risk profiling because of their increased risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)182-188
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of General Internal Medicine
Volume33
Issue number2
Early online date4 Dec 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2018

Cite this

@article{264ca61ae6ba461d822aed7d4b4e62c7,
title = "External Validation of a Tool Predicting 7-Year Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease, Type 2 Diabetes or Chronic Kidney Disease",
abstract = "BACKGROUND: Chronic cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), share many modifiable risk factors and can be prevented using combined prevention programs. Valid risk prediction tools are needed to accurately identify individuals at risk.OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously developed non-invasive risk prediction tool for predicting the combined 7-year-risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.DESIGN: The previously developed tool is stratified for sex and contains the predictors age, BMI, waist circumference, use of antihypertensives, smoking, family history of myocardial infarction/stroke, and family history of diabetes. This tool was externally validated, evaluating model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-assessing discrimination-and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (HL) statistics-assessing calibration. The intercept was recalibrated to improve calibration performance.PARTICIPANTS: The risk prediction tool was validated in 3544 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab).KEY RESULTS: Discrimination was acceptable, with an AUC of 0.78 (95{\%} CI 0.75-0.81) in men and 0.78 (95{\%} CI 0.74-0.81) in women. Calibration was poor (HL statistic: p < 0.001), but improved considerably after intercept recalibration. Examination of individual outcomes showed that in men, AUC was highest for CKD (0.85 [95{\%} CI 0.78-0.91]) and lowest for T2D (0.69 [95{\%} CI 0.65-0.74]). In women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.88 [95{\%} CI 0.83-0.94)]) and lowest for T2D (0.71 [95{\%} CI 0.66-0.75]).CONCLUSIONS: Validation of our previously developed tool showed robust discriminative performance across populations. Model recalibration is recommended to account for different disease rates. Our risk prediction tool can be useful in large-scale prevention programs for identifying those in need of further risk profiling because of their increased risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.",
keywords = "Journal Article",
author = "Rauh, {Simone P} and Femke Rutters and {van der Heijden}, {Amber A W A} and Thomas Luimes and Marjan Alssema and Heymans, {Martijn W} and Magliano, {Dianna J} and Shaw, {Jonathan E} and Beulens, {Joline W} and Dekker, {Jacqueline M}",
year = "2018",
month = "2",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s11606-017-4231-7",
language = "English",
volume = "33",
pages = "182--188",
journal = "Journal of General Internal Medicine",
issn = "0884-8734",
publisher = "Springer Nature",
number = "2",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - External Validation of a Tool Predicting 7-Year Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease, Type 2 Diabetes or Chronic Kidney Disease

AU - Rauh, Simone P

AU - Rutters, Femke

AU - van der Heijden, Amber A W A

AU - Luimes, Thomas

AU - Alssema, Marjan

AU - Heymans, Martijn W

AU - Magliano, Dianna J

AU - Shaw, Jonathan E

AU - Beulens, Joline W

AU - Dekker, Jacqueline M

PY - 2018/2/1

Y1 - 2018/2/1

N2 - BACKGROUND: Chronic cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), share many modifiable risk factors and can be prevented using combined prevention programs. Valid risk prediction tools are needed to accurately identify individuals at risk.OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously developed non-invasive risk prediction tool for predicting the combined 7-year-risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.DESIGN: The previously developed tool is stratified for sex and contains the predictors age, BMI, waist circumference, use of antihypertensives, smoking, family history of myocardial infarction/stroke, and family history of diabetes. This tool was externally validated, evaluating model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-assessing discrimination-and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (HL) statistics-assessing calibration. The intercept was recalibrated to improve calibration performance.PARTICIPANTS: The risk prediction tool was validated in 3544 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab).KEY RESULTS: Discrimination was acceptable, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.81) in men and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) in women. Calibration was poor (HL statistic: p < 0.001), but improved considerably after intercept recalibration. Examination of individual outcomes showed that in men, AUC was highest for CKD (0.85 [95% CI 0.78-0.91]) and lowest for T2D (0.69 [95% CI 0.65-0.74]). In women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.88 [95% CI 0.83-0.94)]) and lowest for T2D (0.71 [95% CI 0.66-0.75]).CONCLUSIONS: Validation of our previously developed tool showed robust discriminative performance across populations. Model recalibration is recommended to account for different disease rates. Our risk prediction tool can be useful in large-scale prevention programs for identifying those in need of further risk profiling because of their increased risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.

AB - BACKGROUND: Chronic cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), share many modifiable risk factors and can be prevented using combined prevention programs. Valid risk prediction tools are needed to accurately identify individuals at risk.OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously developed non-invasive risk prediction tool for predicting the combined 7-year-risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.DESIGN: The previously developed tool is stratified for sex and contains the predictors age, BMI, waist circumference, use of antihypertensives, smoking, family history of myocardial infarction/stroke, and family history of diabetes. This tool was externally validated, evaluating model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-assessing discrimination-and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (HL) statistics-assessing calibration. The intercept was recalibrated to improve calibration performance.PARTICIPANTS: The risk prediction tool was validated in 3544 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab).KEY RESULTS: Discrimination was acceptable, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.81) in men and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) in women. Calibration was poor (HL statistic: p < 0.001), but improved considerably after intercept recalibration. Examination of individual outcomes showed that in men, AUC was highest for CKD (0.85 [95% CI 0.78-0.91]) and lowest for T2D (0.69 [95% CI 0.65-0.74]). In women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.88 [95% CI 0.83-0.94)]) and lowest for T2D (0.71 [95% CI 0.66-0.75]).CONCLUSIONS: Validation of our previously developed tool showed robust discriminative performance across populations. Model recalibration is recommended to account for different disease rates. Our risk prediction tool can be useful in large-scale prevention programs for identifying those in need of further risk profiling because of their increased risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.

KW - Journal Article

U2 - 10.1007/s11606-017-4231-7

DO - 10.1007/s11606-017-4231-7

M3 - Article

VL - 33

SP - 182

EP - 188

JO - Journal of General Internal Medicine

JF - Journal of General Internal Medicine

SN - 0884-8734

IS - 2

ER -