Objective: Familial Paget's disease of bone is inherited as an autosomal-dominant trait and mutations in the sequestosome 1 (SQSTM1) gene have been reported with variable frequency in patients with familial disease. The natural history, however, of the disease in family members with or without SQSTM1 mutations is unknown. Methods: To address this question, we investigated members of families with Paget's disease identified and genotyped in 2000 in The Netherlands without clinical, biochemical or radiological signs of Paget's disease. Seventy-five subjects, median age 56 years (range 44–93), with or without SQSTM1 mutations participated in the present study. Medical history was obtained and clinical examination and laboratory investigations were performed in all. When serum biochemical markers of bone turnover were increased, skeletal scintigraphy with SPECT-CT was performed. Results: After a mean period of 15.9 ± 0.32 (SD) years no subject without SQSTM1 mutations (either from positive or negative families) developed Paget's disease. Of 14 carriers of SQSTM1 mutations, Paget's disease of the pelvis was diagnosed in a 74-year old asymptomatic woman. Conclusion: The incidence of new Paget's disease in SQSTM1 positive subjects was 7.1% and no mutation-negative subject developed the disease within 16 years of follow-up. Subjects without SQSTM1 mutations can be reassured whereas mutation carriers should consider screening. Our findings should be confirmed in other populations as currently unknown environmental factors that might be involved in the development of the disease may differ.