Objective: Optimal targeted treatment in rheumatoid arthritis requires early identification of failure to respond. This post hoc analysis explored the relationship between early disease activity changes and the achievement of low disease activity (LDA) and remission targets with tofacitinib. Methods: Data were from 2 randomized, double-blind, phase III studies. In the ORAL Start trial, methotrexate (MTX)–naive patients received tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, or MTX, for 24 months. In the placebo-controlled ORAL Standard trial, MTX inadequate responder patients received tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily or adalimumab 40 mg every 2 weeks, with MTX, for 12 months. Probabilities of achieving LDA (using a Clinical Disease Activity Index [CDAI] score ≤10 or the 4-component Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate [DAS28-ESR] ≤3.2) at months 6 and 12 were calculated, given failure to achieve threshold improvement from baseline (change in CDAI ≥6 or DAS28-ESR ≥1.2) at month 1 or 3. Results: In ORAL Start, 7.2% and 5.4% of patients receiving tofacitinib 5 and 10 mg twice daily, respectively, failed to show improvement in the CDAI ≥6 at month 3; of those who failed, 3.8% and 28.6%, respectively, achieved month 6 CDAI-defined LDA. In ORAL Standard, 18.8% and 17.5% of patients receiving tofacitinib 5 and 10 mg twice daily, respectively, failed to improve CDAI ≥6 at month 3; of those who failed, 0% and 2.9%, respectively, achieved month 6 CDAI-defined LDA. Findings were similar when considering improvements at month 1 or DAS28-ESR thresholds. Conclusion: In patients with an inadequate response to MTX, lack of response to tofacitinib after 1 or 3 months predicted a low probability of achieving LDA at month 6. Lack of an early response may be considered when deciding whether to continue treatment with tofacitinib.